Introduction: In November, the domestic Bisphenol A (BPA) market experienced a rapid downturn driven primarily by collapsing costs. Early in the month, expectations of tightened supply pushed negotiation prices to approximately 11,600 RMB/ton. However, as crude oil prices retreated and feedstock phenol and acetone offered significant discounts, the cost-support logic disintegrated. Combined with insufficient procurement follow-up from downstream epoxy resin and polycarbonate (PC) sectors, the BPA market declined sharply. As of November 12, the reference price in East China stood at 10,750 RMB/ton, representing a 7% drop compared to November 2.
Costs: From Strong to Weak, Support Collapses
| Product | Region/Category | 2026/11/12 | 2026/11/2 | Change Value | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phenol | East China | 8,650 | 10,000 | -1,350 | -15.61% | RMB/ton |
| Acetone | Jiangsu | 8,425 | 9,350 | -925 | -11.0% | RMB/ton |
| Bisphenol A | East China | 10,750 | 11,600 | -850 | -7.9% | RMB/ton |
| North China | 10,750 | 11,650 | -900 | -8.4% | RMB/ton |
Early in the month, international crude oil prices retreated from highs due to developments in US-Iran negotiations and shifts in the US political landscape, causing a substantial downward shift in the cost structure of the phenol-acetone chain. While the rapid discounting of feedstocks narrowed the theoretical loss margin for BPA from nearly 1,000 RMB/ton to around 400 RMB/ton, it also opened space for further price declines.
Supply and Demand: Low Operating Rates Unable to Offset Lack of Buying Interest
Although an unplanned shutdown at Shandong Ruilin in November initially triggered expectations of tighter supply, pushing prices briefly higher, the BPA industry's capacity utilization remained low at just 66%, failing to reverse the bearish trend. Instead, under the weight of negative market sentiment, suppliers actively lowered prices to clear inventory, exacerbating bearish outlooks. On the demand side, the market exhibited a "deeper off-season" characteristic. Downstream epoxy resin markets weakened slightly, dragged down by falling raw material prices, with limited new orders. The PC sector maintained essential demand, but driven by the "buy on rises, not on drops" mentality, purchasing enthusiasm was extremely low, with actual transactions concentrated on lower-grade materials.
Sentiment and Forecast: Bearish Sentiment Dominates, Short-Term Weakness Persists
Holder sentiment has shifted from previous price support efforts to active selling to avoid risk, while downstream buyers and intermediaries generally remain in wait-and-see mode, anticipating lower psychological price thresholds. With negative cost factors continuing to emerge and a lack of substantive positive stimuli on the demand side, the market lacks rebound momentum.
Short-term Forecast: The short-term BPA market is expected to continue trending weakly with oscillations. Industry operating rates are anticipated to rise in the near term, ensuring ample spot supply, though enterprise inventory pressure is expected to remain manageable. Downstream willingness to enter the market is low, inquiries are cautious, and spot purchase volumes are limited. Although phenol and acetone may see minor recovery, both supply and demand sides of the BPA market remain weak. Under poor demand expectations, holders will continue to prioritize active selling, although room for further discounts is limited. Overall, the short-term market is expected to maintain a pattern of weak consolidation.
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