Last week, domestic cotton prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the price gap between domestic and international markets widening, significantly constraining the upward movement of cotton prices. According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, as of February 9, the spot price of 3128B-grade cotton was 15,986 yuan per ton, down 0.65% from the previous Monday. Currently, the supply in the spot cotton market remains ample, and downstream trading activity has slowed down ahead of the Spring Festival. Data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System shows that as of February 5, 2026, the national cotton processing rate was 98.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while the national sales rate was 65.7%, up 22.5 percentage points year-on-year and 27.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The basis differential for Xinjiang cotton stored in local warehouses continued to strengthen. In northern Xinjiang, the basis differential for machine-picked cotton of grade 3129B with impurities below 2.6% was quoted at around 1,200–1,270 yuan per ton, while the basis differential for the same grade in southern Xinjiang was slightly lower by about 20–30 yuan per ton. Internationally, market sentiment has been dominated by macroeconomic volatility. International cotton prices have declined for eight consecutive trading days since January 28. Last week, the average settlement price of the main New York cotton futures contract was 62.01 cents per pound, down 1.43 cents per pound or 2.3% from the previous week. Domestic cotton prices were 3,812 yuan per ton higher than international prices, with the gap widening by 259 yuan per ton compared to the previous week. The persistent widening of the domestic-international cotton price gap is favorable for the import of cotton and cotton yarn, and imports of cotton and cotton yarn are expected to continue increasing. With ample domestic cotton supply, downstream textile enterprises are gradually entering holiday mode. Most companies maintaining production are focused on reducing inventory and fulfilling orders, with weakened willingness to replenish raw material stocks, leading to a decline in industry operating rates. As enterprises begin their holidays, short-term demand support has further weakened. Overall, the domestic cotton market has entered a pre-holiday lull, with trading activity gradually declining. Cotton prices lack clear directional guidance in the short term, and the market is expected to continue fluctuating within a range before the holiday.
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