Weekly Outlook for Epichlorohydrin

I. Key Highlights

1. Last week, propylene prices retreated from highs, while glycerin prices stabilized after a decline. As of September 28, the indicative transaction price for Shandong propylene was approximately CNY 9,450/ton, and the indicative transaction price for East China 99.5% purity glycerin was approximately CNY 9,075/ton.
2. The average weekly price for Shandong propylene last week was CNY 9,514/ton, and liquid chlorine averaged CNY 408/ton. Based on closing prices as of September 24, the theoretical weekly average profit margin for propylene-route Epichlorohydrin (ECH) production stood at CNY 1,167/ton.
3. The domestic ECH industry’s average weekly capacity utilization rate was 44.8%, representing a decrease of 2.75 percentage points from the previous week.
4. The domestic epoxy resin industry’s average weekly market capacity utilization rate was 49.42%, down 1.08 percentage points period-over-period. Specifically, the utilization rates for liquid and solid epoxy resins were 50.31% and 34.79%, respectively.

Core Logic: Cost support has weakened. Combined with sporadic small-scale pre-holiday stocking by downstream buyers, producers and traders currently face no inventory pressure. New orders are primarily negotiated within existing price ranges, and trading sentiment has improved slightly.

II. Price Table

III. Data Table

IV. Market Outlook

Last week, the domestic ECH market exhibited a trend of declining first before stabilizing. As production enterprises gradually received orders ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival, focusing primarily on order fulfillment, there was no significant supply pressure. However, with the National Day holiday approaching, downstream stocking activities are nearing completion, leaving only sporadic small-volume transactions in local markets, which limits volume expansion. Therefore, the domestic ECH market is expected to consolidate within current price ranges in the near term, requiring further monitoring of trading dynamics.