What drives the price outlook for China's soybean meal after recent pullbacks?
Soybean meal futures recently retreated to around 3050 yuan, giving back gains from a rally that started near 3050 and peaked at 3190. That advance was fueled by US political pressure to buy more US soybeans, a bullish USDA report cutting planted acreage, and rapeseed meal strength. The pullback is viewed as profit-taking after bullish news was fully priced in, not a new bearish driver. However, the underlying concern remains unresolved: winter soybean supply, particularly US purchases, is still uncertain. While global soybean supply is ample, China's short-term import schedule shows high arrivals. The market lacks a clear trend, but traders expect periodic bullish waves on any supply disruption news. Key levels to watch are support at 2924-2928 and resistance at 2960-2965.
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