Why did TMP prices double in six months and what is the upside potential?

Why did TMP prices double in six months and what is the upside potential?
TMP prices surged from around RMB 8,000/ton in late 2025 to RMB 15,000/ton by early 2026, a near 100% gain with actual transactions confirmed. The rally is driven by tight supply as domestic capacity is highly concentrated—total Chinese capacity is roughly 200,000 tons/year, with top producer Baichuan holding 70,000 tons/year across Ningxia and Nantong. Downstream buyers show low price sensitivity, with industry experts suggesting the market can tolerate prices up to RMB 20,000–30,000/ton. With the Chinese New Year approaching and downstream plants shutting down, supply is expected to tighten further post-holiday, supporting additional price increases. Producers are already operating on order backlogs, indicating strong near-term momentum.