With significant macroeconomic uncertainty, acrylic emulsion prices may fluctuate in line with raw material costs following the Double Holiday period.

Lead-in: Recently, the feedstocks butyl acrylate and methyl methacrylate (MMA) markets have stabilized after rising, while styrene first rose and then fell. Costs remain at high levels with range-bound consolidation. Acrylic emulsion producers are facing pressure and offering higher prices, supported by downstream essential demand and improved market negotiations. With the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, frequent fluctuations in crude oil are dampening confidence in the raw materials market. Currently, cost pressures remain high, and supply-demand dynamics continue to compete; the emulsion market is expected to maintain a stable trend.

1. Costs: Raw material prices remain firm at high levels, supporting market sentiment through cost pressure

According to data from Chempricehub, the raw materials market has recently shown mixed trends with both increases and decreases. This week, the domestic butyl acrylate market stabilized after consecutive rises. During the week, feedstock propylene and n-butanol prices first rose and then weakened. Butyl acrylate producers, under cost pressure, continued to offer higher prices, with high costs driving up the market price of butyl acrylate. As of September 17, referencing the mainstream East China market, the price of butyl acrylate was 10,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 300 CNY/ton compared to last Friday, representing a rise of 3.09%. The MMA market stabilized after prices rose this week. As of September 17, the reference negotiation price in the East China market was around 13,350 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,000 CNY/ton compared to last Friday, representing a rise of 8.10%. The styrene market in Jiangsu first rose and then fell. The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,290 CNY/ton, a decrease of 225 CNY/ton compared to last Friday, representing a drop of 2.14%. In terms of raw materials, butyl acrylate and MMA markets moved upward, while styrene fluctuated but remained at relatively high levels. Cost pressures on emulsion enterprises continue to increase, leading to positive sentiment among acrylic emulsion producers despite the pressure.

2. High terminal prices are not effectively transmitted; acrylic emulsion price increases lag behind cost increases

This week, raw material prices for butyl acrylate and MMA rose and then stabilized, while the styrene market fluctuated downward but maintained high-level consolidation. Costs showed an overall upward trend. Acrylic emulsion producers offered higher prices due to cost pressure, but downstream users were cautious about following these high-price increases, entering the market primarily for price negotiations. Consequently, the price increase for pure acrylic emulsions did not keep pace with the rise in costs. Although the theoretical profit margin for styrene-acrylic emulsions saw a slight recovery, they remain in a loss position. As of September 17, the reference price for styrene-acrylic emulsions was 5,600–6,300 CNY/ton, and for pure acrylic emulsions, it was 7,300–8,300 CNY/ton, representing week-on-week increases of 0.85% and 1.30%, respectively. The theoretical cost for styrene-acrylic emulsions was 7,502.5 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.30%; the theoretical profit was 297.5 CNY/ton, a 32% decrease compared to last week. The theoretical cost for pure acrylic emulsions was 6,369.6 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.28%; the theoretical profit was -419.6 CNY/ton, a narrow increase of 7.09% compared to last week.

3. With the dual holidays approaching, the acrylic emulsion market may maintain a firm trend

Cost Side: Recent macroeconomic fluctuations have been frequent. Crude oil and propylene markets have weakened slightly. Butyl acrylate and styrene may continue to weaken slightly within a narrow range. The MMA market is currently suffering severe losses, with strong producer sentiment to support prices, resulting in range-bound trading. Overall raw material costs for acrylic emulsions remain at high levels.

Demand Side: Downstream end-users may engage in phased essential stockpiling before the holidays. Trading activity is expected to improve compared to previous expectations, potentially leading to a slight warming in market demand.

Supply Side: While pre-holiday demand expectations are slightly boosted, uncertainty in the raw materials market remains high. Acrylic emulsion factories are primarily focused on digesting previous raw material contracts, maintaining relatively stable capacity utilization rates.

Summary: Before the holidays, cost-side support for acrylic emulsions remains intact. Downstream users may replenish essential stocks, suggesting the acrylic emulsion market will likely maintain a stable trend.

4. High uncertainty in the macro market; post-holiday acrylic emulsion prices may follow raw material fluctuations

Raw Material Side: Currently, domestic bulk commodities are experiencing intense volatility due to escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Earlier, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused temporary global shortages in petrochemical feedstocks, followed by shifts in control over the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, further increasing global energy supply risks. Uncertainty regarding Middle Eastern geopolitical risks makes the trend of top-tier raw materials unclear. However, after the holidays, inventory accumulation is possible for many products. Limited operational time for October contracts may lead holders to actively release volumes. Therefore, raw materials for acrylic emulsions may weaken slightly, reducing cost pressure expectations.

Demand Side: Historical data suggests that end-user demand in October is expected to be weaker than in September. Before the holidays, downstream coating companies typically plan inventory replenishment. After the holidays, purchasing will likely focus on essential needs based on raw material market conditions and order intake. Demand stimulation is expected to be limited.

Supply Side: Some acrylic emulsion factories may reduce loads during the holidays. Post-holiday, factories will primarily focus on digesting monthly raw material contracts. Capacity utilization rates are expected to remain low. Combined with earlier inventory preparations, the supply side should remain relatively stable.

Summary: After the dual holidays, acrylic emulsion prices are more likely to fluctuate in line with the raw materials market. It is projected that the acrylic emulsion market may experience a slight downward adjustment after the National Day holiday.