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Don't overlook iodine recovery. Globally, about 17% of supply now comes from recycling industrial waste streams. In China, companies like Boyuan are advancing recovery tech, and shale gas brine projects are planned from 2026. These could gradually reduce import dependence and offer buyers a domestic alternative to volatile Chilean pricing.
The real bottleneck isn't demand—it's feedstock. China's iodine content in phosphate rock and seaweed is limited and costly to extract. Even with recovery projects, the ceiling is low. For sustained growth in high-value applications, China will need either new domestic sources or long-term supply agreements with Chilean and Japanese producers.
Watch the gap between Chinese domestic prices and Chilean FOB. The current spread reflects tariffs, logistics, and financing costs, but if the battery story matures, China's import dependence makes it the price taker. Any disruption in Chilean supply—whether environmental rules or shipping—will hit the domestic market disproportionately hard.