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Buyers should watch the origin mix rather than the headline import number. A shift from Taiwanese to Singaporean barrels changes delivered cost by roughly the duty spread plus freight, and contract-priced Singapore cargoes have historically printed below spot alternatives. Locking contract volumes early smooths that volatility.
The risk here is demand destruction, not supply. Plasticizer and unsaturated polyester producers can substitute or delay purchases when phthalic anhydride gets expensive. If OX stays elevated too long, downstream run rates fall further and the feedstock tightness resolves itself through weaker offtake rather than new supply.
The practical read: nobody separates OX by straight distillation from the mixed C8 stream. It is recovered as a co-product of the para-xylene complex, so OX supply is structurally tied to PX operating rates. When PX units run hard, OX output rises whether or not phthalic anhydride demand justifies it.