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Traders should also watch the PTA-PX spread as a real-time profitability signal. When it drops below 280 yuan/t for weeks, expect forced maintenance shutdowns. That is often a contrarian buy signal, as supply cuts eventually rebalance the market.
For international buyers, this concentration means less supplier diversity. But it also means Chinese PTA prices increasingly set the global benchmark. Consider locking in term contracts with integrated Chinese producers, as their cost advantage makes them the most reliable suppliers through market cycles.
The real issue is not total capacity but the cost curve. With processing margins often below the 280 yuan/t breakeven, only the newest units survive. Buyers should track not headline capacity but the share of fourth-generation-plus capacity, as that determines who can sustain output during downturns.