From 2022 to 2026, the supply landscape of China's domestic MMA industry has undergone major changes, with production capacity in an expansion phase. By the end of 2026, the five-year compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) for MMA capacity and output are expected to reach 8% and 14%, respectively. Against this backdrop, the domestic MMA industry's self-sufficiency rate has remained above 100%. Can 2026 push further past the highs seen since 2024?
1. Dual Growth in MMA Capacity and Output: Five-Year CAGR Expected to Reach 8% and 14%
As shown in Figure 1, both domestic MMA capacity and output trended upward from 2022 to 2026. According to data monitored by Chempricehub, as of August 2026, domestic MMA capacity and output had reached 2.955 million tons and 1.2632 million tons, respectively, up 3.50% and 8.19% year-on-year. In terms of capacity, one new producer added 100,000 tons. In terms of output, growth was driven by the expanding capacity base, with capacity utilization remaining broadly unchanged.
By the end of 2026, output is expected to reach 1.92–1.95 million tons, representing year-on-year growth of more than 5%.
2. Self-Sufficiency Rate Holds Above 101% Amid MMA Output Growth
Domestic MMA output grew steadily from 2022 to 2026. As shown in Figure 2, the domestic self-sufficiency rate fluctuated between 101% and 125%. Looking at 2022–2025 specifically, the rate trended upward from 2022 to 2024, peaking at 118.81% in 2024 on the back of strong output growth. In 2025, although output growth remained considerable, the self-sufficiency rate fell to 110.86% as apparent consumption increased more substantially. In 2026, while MMA output growth has slowed somewhat, apparent consumption has fallen short of expectations, so the self-sufficiency rate is expected to rise further to above 120%.
3. Persistently High Self-Sufficiency Rate Transforms MMA Import/Export Landscape
As noted earlier, the MMA self-sufficiency rate has remained above 100%. Against this backdrop, the import/export landscape has undergone a qualitative shift. As shown in Figure 3, since 2023, MMA imports have stayed below 100,000 tons at a low level and are expected to decline further in 2026, keeping import dependence low. On the export side, exports surged by 115.51% in 2024 — driven by force majeure shutdowns or prolonged closures of some overseas plants, coupled with arbitrage opportunities in domestic prices — and prices rose sharply, underscoring the important role of exports in supporting the market. In 2025, amid a weak domestic and international trade environment, export volumes retreated; combined with substantial output growth, price levels fell broadly. In 2026, persistent geopolitical tensions have significantly strengthened cost support, export volumes have grown further, and the average annual price has recovered.
4. Self-Sufficiency and Trade Changes Are Closely Tied to Price Movements — Ultimately, Supply and Demand Drive the Market
In summary, with supply and demand growing steadily, the MMA self-sufficiency rate has remained high, import dependence has declined, and the export window has opened. These changes, in turn, influence market price trends. For example, the marked export growth in 2021 and 2024 coincided with sharp price uptrends, while the declines in export volumes in 2022–2023 and 2025 matched lower average annual prices. Ultimately, the dominant theme of supply and demand shaping market trends remains difficult to change; the output and trade changes discussed above all fall within the realm of supply and demand.
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