Introduction: Domestic rosin prices have recently continued to weaken by 500–600 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, terminal orders have not shown significant improvement. Rosin resin shipments remain weak, and negotiated prices have edged down.
During the week, Masson pine rosin prices declined, and slash pine rosin prices continued to fall. The main reasons are: excessively high pine oleoresin prices have increased procurement risks; the rapid decline in rosin prices has suppressed gum collection prices; Masson pine rosin is entering its production peak season, leading to a further increase in supply; downstream products such as rosin resin and disproportionated rosin continue to show weak trends; and market trading volumes remain low. With bearish factors concentrated in the market, mainstream prices have dropped to 10,900–11,000 yuan/ton.
First, the decline in slash pine rosin prices has lowered production costs. Second, downstream products such as tapes and label adhesives have shown no improvement. Downstream acceptance of rosin resin prices has weakened, raw material prices continue to decline, end-users hold a bearish sentiment, and profit margins are narrow, prompting stricter cost control. As a result, rosin resin prices have come under pressure and edged lower.
Regarding petroleum resin, the mainstream price of C5 petroleum resin for adhesives is 10,000–12,000 yuan/ton, the transaction price of decyclized C5 petroleum resin is 9,000–9,900 yuan/ton, and hydrogenated petroleum resin remains at 11,500–13,000 yuan/ton. Overall supply from petroleum resin manufacturers continues to recover; only some regions still face tight supply, while overall availability is relatively sufficient. Since negotiated prices are generally lower than rosin resin prices, petroleum resin's cost-performance advantage is prominent.
Comparing rosin resin and petroleum resin prices over the past two years, the downstream markets overlap considerably. When petroleum resin prices fall too low, substitution intensifies, and there remains room for flexible formulation adjustments. This periodically increases shipment pressure on rosin resin. Therefore, from the perspectives of raw materials, substitutes, and consumption, bearish factors dominate the rosin resin market. Prices mostly declined to 13,000–13,500 yuan/ton during the week, with a cumulative decline of around 500 yuan/ton.
In summary, pine oleoresin prices remain relatively high. As the first batch of oleoresin comes down from the mountains in volume, prices may have room to fall. Therefore, rosin prices are expected to continue declining in the short term. As for substitute petroleum resin, the peak season is approaching, which provides strong support from both usage volume and raw material prices. Consequently, petroleum resin prices are likely to remain relatively firm, or may rise slightly driven by downstream gains, though a significant surge is unlikely. Prices will continue to stay below rosin resin levels. In addition, end-users maintain strict cost control and remain cautious in procurement volumes, providing weak price support. The rosin resin market will continue to be dominated by bearish factors in the short term, with negotiated prices following raw material prices downward. However, given expectations of demand uplift during the peak season, the pace of decline in negotiated prices will be relatively slow.
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