Lead-in: During the holiday period, domestic DOP units experienced reduced operations or shutdowns, causing the overall industry utilization rate to drop to 43%. The market accumulated significant spot inventories that needed digestion. After the holiday, end-users gradually entered the market to replenish stocks, leading to sustained improvement in transaction volumes. This drove a bottom-out rebound in market sentiment and a steady upward trend in prices.
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Before the holiday, trading activity in the domestic DOP market was generally sluggish, characterized primarily by rigid-demand stockpiling. Although end-users had moderate procurement needs for essential requirements, their willingness to stockpile remained cautious due to reduced downstream demand caused by partial unit shutdowns during the holiday and prevailing bearish market sentiment. No concentrated restocking occurred. Furthermore, the decline in feedstock n-octanol prices during the holiday further dampened market confidence.
As low-price transactions began to gain volume, n-octanol prices were the first to hit a bottom and rebound, providing cost support to the DOP market. Upon reopening after the holiday, crude oil and chemical futures prices rose broadly, effectively boosting overall market atmosphere and rapidly revitalizing trading sentiment. On one hand, traders initiated short-covering activities; on the other, end-users engaged in concentrated restocking. Consequently, market transaction activity surged significantly, and bullish momentum continued to recover.
Driven by rising costs, recovering trading activity, and improving industry sentiment, domestic DOP prices adjusted upward accordingly. As of October 9, the mainstream delivered price for DOP in Jiangsu province stood at 10,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to pre-holiday levels, indicating a steady recovery in market conditions.
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Around the National Day holiday, several DOP plants—including Libang, Haiyou, and Hairun Changsheng—ceased production, while Weibo and Hongbo implemented planned shutdowns. Industry capacity utilization maintained a range of 42–47%. Profit margins began turning from losses to gains in late September, with the average profit level in Shandong reaching 55 yuan/ton in September. Benefiting from softer n-octanol prices in Shandong during the holiday, profit levels improved dramatically in October. Within just two working days, the average profit reached 416 yuan/ton. Notably, profits for DOP produced via the naphthalene phthalic anhydride route were even more substantial, averaging over 500 yuan/ton. With market profitability restored, some previously shut down or curtailed units began gradually increasing output. It is expected that DOP capacity utilization will recover to levels between 50% and 51%.
In the short term, this current price rally is primarily driven by post-holiday concentrated inventory replenishment. Crude oil and propylene prices remain high, keeping market participants' sentiment strong. There has been considerable buying interest supporting price increases. However, end-user demand remains essentially based on phased restocking, without any significant or sustained improvement in downstream product orders. Willingness to chase higher prices is limited, so future buying will likely remain focused on rigid demand. Nevertheless, tightening physical supply of propylene continues to push its price higher, resulting in robust n-octanol costs and price appreciation. Combined with rising phthalic anhydride prices, cost-push factors may provide momentum for DOP prices to maintain elevated levels in the first half of the month.
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