Cost Headwinds Intensify; Caprolactam Prices Decline (Oct 30–Nov 5, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① Sinopec's listed price for pure benzene was cut to 8,800 RMB/ton, leading to a sharp decline in raw material prices.
② Negative cost-side impacts intensified, dampening downstream sentiment; caprolactam prices primarily followed the downward trend.
③ Weekly caprolactam output stood at 122,800 tons, while polyamide 6 chip production reached 117,200 tons. The operating rate for nylon filament was 67%.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

During this period (October 30 – November 5, 2026), domestic caprolactam market prices declined. The average spot price in the East China market was 13,080 RMB/ton, down 5.56% week-on-week. On Thursday, November 5, the spot price for caprolactam in the East China market was 12,600 RMB/ton, with acceptance payment and delivery included.

Caprolactam prices experienced a significant drop this period. The primary negative factor came from the cost side. Geopolitical risk premiums in upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets were rapidly squeezed out, leading to sustained price declines. Sinopec consecutively lowered its listed pure benzene price, exacerbating cost-side pressures on caprolactam. Caprolactam prices followed pure benzene with substantial adjustments. Downstream participants adopted a cautious stance, limiting purchases to essential needs. Consequently, spot transactions in the East China market concentrated around 12,600 RMB/ton (acceptance payment/delivery).

Domestic Caprolactam Price Change Comparison Table (Unit: RMB/ton)

3. Market Influencing Factors Analysis

1. The gross margin for caprolactam production was -1,042 RMB/ton, an increase of 382 RMB/ton compared to the previous period. The gross margin for caprolactam units was 826 RMB/ton, up 442 RMB/ton from the previous period.
2. Caprolactam output was 122,800 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The capacity utilization rate for caprolactam was 70.79%, also stable versus the previous period.
3. Caprolactam inventory stood at 40,000 tons during this period, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

The caprolactam market is expected to remain weak next period. Key focus areas include:

1. Cost Side: The downward shift in pure benzene costs resonates with weakening supply-demand dynamics. A looser balance sheet and port inventory accumulation are pressuring prices. The market is expected to continue oscillating at lower levels, with reference negotiation ranges for East China spot prices estimated at 8,000–8,500 RMB/ton [Note: Context suggests this likely refers to Pure Benzene or is a typo in source, but translated as written]. Correction based on context consistency in paragraph end: See final sentence for Caprolactam specific forecast.
2. Supply Side: Downstream caprolactam output has decreased slightly, and commodity volumes are not expected to change significantly for now. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply-demand landscape later in the month following the restart of maintenance units in Shandong.
3. Demand Side: Downstream participants are becoming more cautious, and purchasing pace is expected to slow down in the near term.

Overall, the primary negative factors for the caprolactam market currently stem from the cost side. Caprolactam prices may continue to follow raw material declines next week. The East China spot price is forecasted to be between 12,000–12,300 RMB/ton (acceptance payment/delivery).