① Crude oil and naphtha prices remained elevated, providing strong cost-side support.
② Overall supply increased, offering limited support to market trends.
③ The synthetic rubber futures and spot markets rose, boosting positive sentiment within the industry.
During this period, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated at high levels. Yangzi Petrochemical restarted its unit, while a plant in North China shut down for maintenance. Overall supply increased, resulting in limited support for price trends. Downstream industry profits are gradually recovering; however, downstream units maintained low operating rates, with buyers adopting a cautious mindset. Nevertheless, sustained high crude oil and naphtha prices provided strong cost-side support. Combined with the upward trend in synthetic rubber futures and spot markets, market sentiment strengthened, leading merchants to maintain firm offer prices. Consequently, the market fluctuated strongly at high levels. As of October 9, 2026, delivered prices in central Shandong ranged from 14,100–14,200 CNY/ton, while ex-tank self-pickup prices in East China referenced 13,800–13,900 CNY/ton.
| Product | Region/Category | Current Avg. | Previous Avg. | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent | 104.50 | 103.80 | 0.70 | 0.67% | USD/barrel |
| Naphtha | Japan | 942.35 | 897.25 | 45.10 | 5.03% | USD/ton |
| Butadiene | Sinopec Listed Price | 13700 | 13500 | 200 | 1.48% | CNY/ton |
| CFR China | 1606 | 1600 | 6 | 0.38% | USD/ton | |
| FOB Korea | 1574 | 1570 | 4 | 0.25% | USD/ton | |
| Shandong | 14163 | 13708 | 454 | 3.31% | CNY/ton | |
| Jiangsu | 14038 | 13617 | 421 | 3.09% | CNY/ton | |
| Jiangyin | 13875 | 13408 | 467 | 3.48% | CNY/ton | |
| Zhejiang | 14038 | 13617 | 421 | 3.09% | CNY/ton | |
| BR Rubber | Shandong | 16400 | 15567 | 833 | 5.35% | CNY/ton |
| SBR | Shandong | 16700 | 15867 | 833 | 5.25% | CNY/ton |
| SBS | Shandong | 14500 | 14767 | -267 | -1.81% | CNY/ton |
| ABS | Yuyao | 11675 | 11150 | 525 | 4.71% | CNY/ton |
| NBR | Hengshui | 17350 | 17400 | -50 | -0.29% | CNY/ton |
Data Source: ChemAnalyst
The domestic butadiene market is expected to fluctuate within a range. On the supply side, Hainan Refining & Chemical’s butadiene unit is scheduled to restart, potentially increasing overall supply. Additionally, imported volumes may rise due to improved overseas production stability. However, some domestic plants are planned for maintenance during late October, which could partially offset the supply increase. Net effect suggests slight oversupply pressure.
On the demand side, downstream sectors such as synthetic rubber and ABS show mixed performance. While raw material costs remain high, supporting floor prices, weak end-user demand persists amid seasonal lulls in tire and plastic processing industries. Buyers are likely to maintain cautious procurement strategies, focusing on inventory digestion rather than aggressive restocking.
Overall, butadiene prices are projected to trade sideways or slightly lower next week, with key resistance around 14,300 CNY/ton and support near 13,800 CNY/ton in major regions. Traders should monitor crude oil volatility and actual downstream loading rates closely.
Comments
0