DOTP Prices Surge Then Retreat (Oct 30–Nov 5, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Production: The average operating rate of domestic DOTP plants was 60.14% during this period.

2. Costs: The price of the main raw material, 2-ethylhexanol (octanol), rose, while the average price of PTA declined.

3. Profit: The theoretical profit for sample DOTP enterprises today was approximately 559 RMB/ton.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

During this period, domestic DOTP market prices initially rose and then retreated. In the Zhejiang region, weekly quoted prices ranged from 10,200 to 10,400 RMB/ton. At the beginning of the cycle, tight supply of upstream propylene drove prices higher. Octanol producers faced increasing pressure from losses, and market sentiment regarding future octanol prices was bullish. Combined with tight spot supply within the DOTP market, both costs and supply provided dual support, pushing DOTP quotes strongly upward. However, at these high price levels, downstream product manufacturers had weak stocking intentions, and buyers were cautious in following up, making it difficult to achieve significant volume in new orders at high prices. Entering the second half of the week, international crude oil prices plunged significantly, severely denting market confidence. Raw materials octanol and PTA weakened simultaneously; the cost-side tailwinds faded and turned into headwinds, causing DOTP market conditions to come under downward pressure. Currently, market inquiry activity has not improved, and buyer support is insufficient. Short-term prices still face downward pressure. Future focus will be on tracking raw material fluctuations and actual downstream procurement releases.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. Domestic DOTP plant capacity utilization rates rose during this period, with an average load of around 60%.

2. On Thursday of this week, the ex-factory price of DOTP in the Zhejiang market was 11,200 RMB/ton, an increase of 200 RMB/ton compared to last Thursday.

3. On Thursday of this week, the price of the main raw material octanol increased by 100 RMB/ton compared to last Thursday, while the other raw material, PTA, decreased by 882 RMB/ton compared to last Thursday.

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

Domestic DOTP market prices are expected to trend weakly downward in the next period. Prices in the Zhejiang region are projected to range between 10,700 and 11,100 RMB/ton.

From a cost perspective, the core raw material octanol is pressured by its own declining costs and sluggish new order transactions, suggesting continued weakness next week. The other raw material, PTA, is similarly burdened by cost factors and is likely to maintain a weak trend. Externally, with the Democratic Party winning the midterm elections, the risk of large-scale conflict between the US and Iran has cooled, weakening geopolitical support for international oil prices. Chemical products as a whole are under pressure, thereby forming a cost-side negative factor for DOTP.

On the demand side, rigid downstream demand remains, providing some floor support for lower price levels. However, industry participants lack confidence in future prospects, and buying operations remain cautious, mainly consisting of staged low-price replenishment based on rigid needs. New order transactions continue to be weak, leaving downward pressure on the market. Regarding supply, DOTP plant operating loads are expected to rise significantly next week, gradually alleviating the tight spot supply situation and further suppressing market quotes.

In summary, costs and supply form dual negative factors, indicating potential downside space for DOTP prices. However, downstream low-price replenishment behavior may limit the extent of the decline. Future monitoring should focus on changes in the geopolitical situation and potential market disruptions caused by rapid reversals in crude oil sentiment.