Introduction: During the National Day holiday, international crude oil prices retreated from high levels due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and news of G7 strategic reserve releases. The market for mixed C5 in Shandong declined; however, pre-holiday inventory reduction was effective, resulting in limited pressure on refinery stocks.
| Enterprise Name | Sep 30 | Oct 7 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Market | 7380 | 7100 | -280 |
| East China Market | 7300 | 7350 | +50 |
During the National Day holiday, affected by falling crude oil prices, the price of mixed C5 in Shandong fluctuated downwards. As of October 7, the Shandong market price for mixed C5 stood at 7,100 RMB/ton, a decrease of 280 RMB/ton (-3.79%). In the East China market, spot availability of mixed C5 remained tight, with the average market price rising to 7,350 RMB/ton, an increase of 50 RMB/ton (+0.68%).
Table 1: Comparison of International Crude Oil and Related Product Prices (USD/barrel)
| Product | Sep 29 | Oct 6 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | 89.38 | 89.44 | +0.06 |
| Brent | 102.59 | 100.58 | -2.01 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
International crude oil prices experienced intense volatility during the National Day holiday. Impacted by US-Iran tensions and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude briefly surged above $102/barrel. Subsequently, the G7 announced the release of approximately 100 million barrels from strategic reserves, Middle Eastern exports resumed, and Saudi Arabia significantly lowered its Asian selling prices. These factors eased supply concerns. By October 6, Brent had fallen back to $100.58/barrel, while WTI dropped to $89.44/barrel.
Table 3: Comparison of Shandong Gasoline and Related Product Prices (RMB/ton)
| Product Name | Sep 30 | Oct 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92# Gasoline | 10093 | 9914 | -179 |
| Toluene | 8675 | 8625 | -50 |
| Xylene | 8526 | 8460 | -66 |
| Mixed Aromatics | 8500 | 8450 | -50 |
| Trimethylbenzene | 8606 | 8540 | -66 |
| MTBE | 8000 | 8100 | 100 |
| Raffinate Oil | 8240 | 7800 | -440 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
During the holiday period, crude oil prices fell from highs, weakening cost support. Terminal shipments of gasoline in Shandong decreased over the National Day holiday, and actual procurement demand may have seen a temporary decline, dragging down prices. Overall gasoline production and sales were weak, averaging around 70% and failing to reach equilibrium. Consequently, prices for gasoline-related products declined to varying degrees.
It is expected that the domestic mixed C5 market will continue to trend weakly after the holiday. International crude oil remains subject to Middle Eastern geopolitical disturbances, carrying significant volatility risk. While Shandong gasoline prices saw a slight earlier decline, rigid post-holiday demand is limited, reducing refineries' motivation to push prices up. However, since refinery supply remains relatively tight, the overall downward magnitude is limited, suggesting short-term narrow fluctuations. Supply and demand fundamentals for mixed C5 show no obvious changes yet. Considering all factors, mixed C5 prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range in the short term. Once downstream restocking concludes, there is still room for further declines in the mixed C5 market.
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