Lead: Weak demand has driven DOP market prices gradually lower. Narrow fluctuations in upstream raw material prices have kept production costs high, continuously squeezing profit margins. Some producers have already resorted to cutting operating rates to cope with cost pressures.

Slow adjustment of raw material prices adds to DOP cost pressure

| Figure 1: DOP cost and price trend in 2026 (yuan/ton) |
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| Source: chempricehub |

In the first half of this month, octanol faced significant supply pressure, leading to a rapid price decline, which pulled DOP prices lower. Meanwhile, naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride moved within a low monthly range. During this period, DOP's theoretical profit remained around 150–300 yuan/ton, showing acceptable profitability.

Entering the latter part of the month, tight supply of naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride supported its price increase. Ortho-xylene-based phthalic anhydride remained at elevated levels due to raw material tightness. Combined with production cuts by loss-making octanol producers, octanol prices rebounded slightly from the low. Under the dual support of both raw materials, DOP's comprehensive production costs rose. However, persistently weak downstream demand failed to support DOP, putting significant pressure on market sales. Product prices continued to decline, cost pressure intensified, and industry profitability kept shrinking. By the end of the month, DOP production using the ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride route was nearing the breakeven point, while the naphthalene-based route narrowed to a profit of 100–200 yuan/ton.

Increased plant shutdowns and output cuts in latter half, production volume slightly down

| Figure 3: DOP profit and capacity utilization comparison in 2026 (yuan/ton, %) |
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| Source: chempricehub |

In the middle of the month, DOP industry profitability was decent, and overall plant operating rates remained stable. Only Libang and Weibo experienced brief temporary shutdowns. The industry's comprehensive capacity utilization rate stayed at 58%, with daily output of about 3,800 tons.

In the latter part of the month, profit continued to decline. The naphthalene-based route still had acceptable margins, allowing low-priced sales and smooth circulation. The ortho-xylene-based route, however, faced dual pressure from rising costs and slowing sales, leading to increased production cuts and shutdowns. For example, Lanfan's Zibo plant reduced output, while Zhejiang Hongbo and Zhenjiang Liancheng entered phased maintenance. Industry capacity utilization fell to 50%, with daily output dropping to 3,400 tons. Although a few companies reported order backlogs, overall regional supply was relatively abundant, and inventory destocking proceeded slowly.

Weak demand drags DOP; cost and supply pressure coexist

The current DOP market is under price pressure due to persistently weak end-user demand. Although there is expectation that future tariff reductions could boost export orders, downstream end-user orders have not yet recovered, leaving demand support still weak.

On the raw material side, the octanol industry has fallen into losses. Major producers generally support prices by cutting output, slowing the price decline. Phthalic anhydride also has limited room for further short-term decline.

Against this backdrop, the DOP industry is caught in the twin dilemma of high costs and weak demand. The market lacks effective positive drivers, and product sales cannot accelerate. It is expected that the industry may further cut production to relieve supply pressure. Prices still have room to fall, and industry profitability is likely to continue shrinking.