Pre-holiday market signals triggered price fluctuations within a trading range (September 25–30, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Production: Monitor fluctuations in plant operations within the Shandong market region.

2. Demand: UPR weekly operating rate was 28%.

Polyether: Spot market offers fluctuated and consolidated. As the month-end approached, holders actively negotiated to push sales. Downstream users continued to purchase on a demand-based, small-lot basis. Key focus remains on downstream sentiment and raw material news.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Table 1: Weekly Price Changes for Domestic Propylene Glycol (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. As of the close on September 30, the weekly average comprehensive gross profit for domestic propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate produced via PO transesterification was +224 CNY/ton, representing a period-on-period decline.

2. Raw material prices rebounded from low levels this week. Operating propylene glycol plants maintained offers at low levels, with transactions primarily occurring at the lower end of the price range. Export order support remained relatively strong, while domestic downstream users adopted a wait-and-see approach, purchasing only essential volumes at low prices. Cautious sentiment persists. Additionally, ongoing news regarding plant operations in the Shandong region continued to disturb market sentiment, maintaining high levels of observer hesitation among industry participants.

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

Looking ahead, supply-side plant changes will continue to disrupt market sentiment. Specific attention should be paid to raw material trends during the holiday and suppliers' order delivery schedules.

Raw Materials: The domestic propylene oxide (PO) market has staged a phased rebound from its bottom. Prior to last week's Mid-Autumn Festival, the market weakened and fell to low levels. Subsequently, downstream users gradually resumed procurement, leading to a stabilization and consolidation of the market. During the holiday, healthy shipments continued, allowing suppliers to reduce inventories to low, manageable levels, followed by a narrow upward rebound. Between the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, overall trading activity was decent but showed regional divergence: northern markets maintained base volume levels, while southern markets relied mainly on contract orders. To date, most parties have entered holiday mode, with prices stabilizing and the price gap between north and south narrowing due to this divergence. For the subsequent market, it is necessary to monitor whether inventory levels face pressure during the holiday. On the demand side, many pre-existing orders are being delivered during the holiday. Spot trading is predominantly concentrated in the north. It is expected that transmission to end-users will slow down due to holidays and logistics impacts, and PO procurement volumes may also decrease slightly. Without obvious positive support, the market is tentatively predicted to dip first and then rise during the holiday period.

Demand Side: Domestic unsaturated resin (UPR) prices are expected to fluctuate upward next week. Cost-side support remains relatively firm, and spot prices are expected to strengthen amidst fluctuations. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a pattern of high-level consolidation with a steady-to-rising center of gravity. Specifically:

1. Supply Side: Overall operating loads at UPR plants are gradually recovering after the National Day holiday, with plant loads steadily increasing.
2. Demand Side: Resin prices remain at high levels, limiting downstream chasing behavior. Spot transactions are dominated by small, necessity-driven orders, resulting in a slower trading pace. Entering October, demand under the traditional "Silver October" peak season still awaits verification. Although downstream users did not stock up significantly during the National Day holiday, there remains rigid replenishment demand post-holiday. However, given weak background demand from end-use sectors, downstream order volumes are unlikely to see significant growth, thus failing to provide effective stimulation for rigid demand for unsaturated resins or procurement activities.
3. Cost Side: Prices of key raw materials such as styrene and maleic anhydride remain volatile within high ranges, providing certain cost support for unsaturated resins.