Prompt

1. Today's Summary

1. On October 30: The market focused on the potential escalation of the US-Iran conflict, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intensified supply risks, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) closed at $104.12/bbl, up $2.12/bbl (+2.08% vs. previous session). ICE Brent futures (December contract) closed at $117.64/bbl, up $2.76/bbl (+2.40% vs. previous session). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) fell by 8.3 yuan/barrel to 727.6 yuan/barrel during the day session, but rose by 30.9 yuan/barrel to 758.5 yuan/barrel in the night session.

2. On October 30: The port-side ethylene USD CFR Northeast Asia price stood at $1,230/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices maintained a stable trend today. On the supply side, producers primarily fulfilled contract orders, leaving limited spot inventory. Combined with load adjustments at some units and shutdowns for maintenance at multiple plants, supply conditions remained tight. Major downstream industries showed willingness to support prices, and mandatory replenishment needs provided some support, although a wait-and-see attitude persisted in the market. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices remained firm at high levels due to tight spot resources and strong reluctance among holders to sell. However, willingness to buy derivatives at these high prices was moderate, resulting in average trading activity. Overall, contracted supply and firm raw material costs supported stable EO prices. Future developments upstream and downstream require continued attention.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 53.83%. As of the previous working day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was 1,331.38 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene was 1,125 yuan/ton today, representing a decrease compared to the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, multiple units in East China are undergoing maintenance shutdowns, limiting available spot resources and keeping overall market supply tight, with factories focusing on contract orders. On the demand side, major downstream sectors have reduced acceptance of high-priced EO, lacking motivation for active restocking, which limits upward price momentum. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices are trending strongly, spot resources are tight, losses in the derivative markets have narrowed, and external procurement demand has increased. In summary, support from both the supply and cost sides suggests that EO prices will likely remain stable in the short term. Continued monitoring of upstream and downstream changes is necessary.

5. Related Products

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Currently, domestic ethylene supply is tight. Some external sales enterprises are withholding offers, reluctant to sell. Losses in styrene-based derivative markets have narrowed, increasing external procurement demand, leading to a balanced but tight supply-demand situation. It is predicted that ethylene prices will continue to rise in the next working day. Mainstream transaction prices in East China are expected to range between 9,800–9,900 yuan/ton, while Shandong mainstream prices are expected to be 9,700–10,000 yuan/ton. Regarding USD pricing, the shipping market continues to receive support from the supply side, with USD prices expected to trade within the range of $1,200–$1,280/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may remain stable or strengthen slightly. The primary raw material, ethylene oxide, is likely to maintain stability. Previously shut-down units for maintenance have not yet resumed operations, and some units face expectations of short-term stops, keeping intra-market supply relatively tight. Downstream consumption is driven by essential needs. Ethylene producers are currently prioritizing pre-sales, providing strong supply-side support, and there is a possibility of slight price increases, which may offer some cost-side assistance. Considering cost pressures and existing order backlogs, monomer producers show no willingness to discount shipments. Some downstream buyers are cautiously replenishing stocks at high prices, driving volume through essential demand, with transactions negotiated based on quantity. Consequently, the main East China EPEG market price is projected to be between 10,300–10,600 yuan/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) (Related Product): Geopolitical tensions keep crude oil prices at high levels, supporting MEG costs. From a supply-demand perspective, although there are signs of slight inventory accumulation, stock levels remain low, suggesting a high probability that the market will maintain its strength. Tomorrow's East China spot ex-tank prices are predicted to range between 5,750–5,850 yuan/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)