Prompt

1. Daily Summary

1. Oct 29: Mediators continue to push for US-Iran peace talks, causing international crude oil prices to decline; however, lingering conflict risks limited the extent of the drop. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (December contract) fell by $0.78/bbl to $102 (-0.76% DoD); ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) fell by $0.44/bbl to $114.88 (-0.38% DoD). China INE crude oil futures (December 2026 contract) rose by CNY 13.5 to CNY 735.9/bbl during the day session but dropped by CNY 14.4 to CNY 721.5/bbl during the night session.

2. Oct 29: The port-side ethylene USD CFR Northeast Asia price stood at $1,230/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices maintained a stable trend today. On the supply side, multiple plants in East China underwent maintenance shutdowns, while other operating units slightly increased load rates, resulting in tight overall market supply. Downstream industries primarily engaged in restocking based on rigid demand, with no significant increase in market activity observed. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices rose. Currently, circulating spot ethylene supplies remain limited domestically, supporting producers' continued upward pricing adjustments. Overall, supply contraction combined with firm raw material costs has supported stable EO prices. Continued attention should be paid to upstream and downstream developments.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 55.37%. As of the previous trading day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was CNY 1,330.43/ton. The theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene was CNY 1,162.5/ton today, representing a decrease compared to the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, although some units have slightly increased loads, multiple plants remain shut down for maintenance, leading to tight overall market supply. On the demand side, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, characterized mainly by orders driven by rigid demand. Market participants maintain a cautious sentiment, with transactions negotiated based on volume. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices continue to rise. However, macroeconomic conditions are weakening overall, and derivatives markets show limited acceptance of high prices, with chasing-high sentiment turning cautious. In summary, tight supply and elevated costs provide floor support for the EO market. Short-term EO prices are expected to remain stable, with continued monitoring of upstream and downstream changes recommended.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Current domestic ethylene supply is tight. Losses in styrene-based derivative markets have narrowed, increasing external procurement demand and leading to a tight balance between supply and demand. Next trading day, ethylene prices are expected to continue rising. Mainstream negotiation prices in East China are projected to hold around CNY 9,800/ton, while Shandong mainstream prices are expected around CNY 9,700/ton. Regarding USD prices, the shipping market remains supported by supply-side factors, with the USD price range estimated at $1,200–$1,280/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may remain temporarily stable. The key raw material, ethylene oxide, is likely to stay firm at high levels. Plants that underwent prior maintenance have not yet resumed operations, keeping local spot supply tight. Downstream industries are consuming steadily, but high-priced ethylene transactions are generally lackluster, and derivatives buyers show poor sentiment for chasing highs. Prices are expected to consolidate at high levels, with cost-side factors providing some support. With manageable inventory pressure for monomers, traders show no obvious willingness to offer discounts. Downstream users exhibit resistance to high-priced sources, maintaining cautious procurement and releasing only rigid demand orders, with transactions negotiated based on volume. Consequently, the mainstream EPEG price in East China is projected to range between CNY 10,200 and CNY 10,500/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical tensions keep crude oil prices at high levels, supporting MEG costs. From a supply-demand perspective, short-term inventories remain low. Additionally, due to poor economic benefits for MEG production, expectations of loose supply are diminishing, making it highly probable that the market will remain strong. For the next trading day, East China spot self-pickup prices are expected to range between CNY 5,800 and CNY 6,000/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)