Prompt

1. Daily Summary

① Ethanol prices in Jilin, Northeast China, rose.
② Prices in Heilongjiang, Northeast China, increased.
③ Coal-based ethanol prices declined.
④ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable.
⑤ Ethanol prices in East China were stable.
⑥ Downstream chemical transactions were sporadic.
⑦ Spot deliveries to Shandong refineries saw minimal trading activity.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethanol Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

[Daily Commentary]
Based on the Heilongjiang region as a benchmark, today's 95% ethanol closed at 5,100–5,250 CNY/ton. Prices in Jilin and Heilongjiang (Northeast China) rose due to tight supply for both standard and premium grades, with shipments fulfilling prior orders. For fuel ethanol, factory prices remained weak, and producers showed an active willingness to ship. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan were stable, with few vehicles waiting at plant gates. Ethanol prices in East China remained steady; spot availability was limited, with transactions driven by rigid demand. Coal-based ethanol prices held firm, with shipments continuing against existing contracts, while new order volume was limited. Downstream buyers in Shandong made sporadic purchases.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the domestic ethanol capacity utilization rate remained at 48.21%. Operational status of edible ethanol plants is as follows:

• Heilongjiang: Hongzhan, Zhongke Green, Shenglong, Wanli, Fuyuan, Yushu, Xintianlong, and Zhaodong COFCO are producing. Guotou Jidong, Hailun Bio, and Tieling facilities are also operational. Inner Mongolia Baiyecheng is producing.
• Jilin: Dongfeng is producing.
• Henan: Hanyong and Huaxing facilities are producing. Houyuan is temporarily shut down.
• Sichuan: Hongzhan is producing.
• Shandong: Qufeng is producing.
• East China: Huating is producing. Longhe, Guannan Xinguan, and Romate units are shut down.
• Anhui: Wanshen and Anhui COFCO (fuel ethanol) are producing.

Today, the theoretical profit margin for 95% corn ethanol in Heilongjiang stood at 297.55 CNY/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Short-term regional trends for domestic ethanol are expected as follows:

• Northeast China: Prices are likely to remain stable or slightly stronger, supported by the fulfillment of prior orders.
• East China: Prices are expected to stay stable as downstream contract shipments continue.
• Henan: With declining downstream demand, there is a possibility of minor price drops.
• Coal-based Ethanol: Prices should remain stable, driven by rigid downstream procurement.
• Fuel Ethanol: Prices are currently weak and may face further downward pressure.

5. Related Product Status

1. Dried Cassava Chips: On November 2, Thai dried cassava chips FOB (Bangkok) quoted at USD 240–245/ton; Vietnamese dried cassava chips CNF quoted at USD 245/ton.
2. Corn: Overall, the corn market is expected to trend sideways with a slight upward bias, with the center of gravity moving up marginally. This week is projected to continue the stabilization seen since last week. If rain and snow in Northeast China persistently disrupt supply volumes, spot prices may strengthen slightly; however, improved weather in North China could restore arrival volumes and cap rebound potential.
3. Ethyl Acetate: The East China ethyl acetate market price executed at 6,650–6,950 CNY/ton (ex-factory, cash). Trading was primarily rational, with mainstream factories seeing partial premiums through auctions.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethanol Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons / Percentages where noted)