Supply-Demand Tug-of-War: Regional Price Uptrend (Oct 16–22, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus for the Week

① Corn prices in Heilongjiang slightly weakened this period.
② Ethanol prices in Northeast China (Heilongjiang) rose this period.
③ Ethanol prices in Northeast China (Jilin) rose this period.
④ Prices in major coal-to-ethanol production regions remained stable this period.
⑤ Prices in the East China market rose this period.
⑥ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan rose this period.
⑦ Dried cassava chip prices remained stable this period.
⑧ Delivered prices to downstream refineries declined this period.
⑨ Delivered prices to downstream chemical industries remained stable with a bullish trend this period.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Unit: Yuan/ton

Source: Chempricehub Information

Detailed analysis shows that ethanol prices in Northeast China rose, specifically for corn-based ethanol in both Jilin and Heilongjiang. The supply of bio-fermentation ethanol within the market increased this period. Shenglong's unit is producing; Dongfeng Hualiang's unit is producing. Hongzhan is operating at full capacity; Wanli is operating normally; COFCO Zhaodong's fuel ethanol production is stable; Zhongke Green is producing; Shenglong's unit is producing. In Jilin, Fukang's unit is producing; Xintianlong is producing; Dongfeng Hualiang's unit is producing; Yushu's unit is producing. The Zhalantun unit is producing. Guotou Helen, Jidong units are producing; Tieling is producing. Two factories in Mengzhou, Henan are operating normally; Huaxing's unit resumed operations on Thursday; Xinxing Bio is producing. Sichuan Hongzhan's unit is producing. COFCO Anhui's Bengbu line (two lines) is producing, while the Suzhou line is shut down; Anhui Wanshen is producing, though unit stability was poor late in the week. Shandong Qufeng's unit is producing; Jiyinmeng is shut down; Huating is producing. COFCO Guangxi is shut down; Guangxi Xintian De's unit is producing; Guangxi Jinyuan's unit is producing.

On the cost front, the national average corn price declined. Corn prices fell in both Northeast China and Henan. Pickup from factories in Northeast China became difficult, leading to higher factory quotes and rising transaction prices in the market. Heilongjiang and Jilin saw synchronized increases, driven by high backlog orders from earlier periods. Cassava ethanol prices in East China rose, with increases observed in both Shandong and Anhui regions. Operating rates for cassava ethanol plants were low, resulting in tight spot market availability. Prices rose in main production areas and surrounding regions as downstream chemical industries engaged in rigid demand procurement, pushing delivered prices up. Wheat ethanol plant quotes in Shandong rose, supported by price increases in neighboring regions; shipment conditions were acceptable, prompting quote hikes. Quotes in Anhui also increased due to unstable plant operations, contract order execution, and reluctance to sell at low prices. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan rose. Two factories in Mengzhou operated normally; Huaxing's unit was shut down but resumed production on Thursday; Houyuan experienced instability earlier. Henan's supply decreased, vehicle queues at some factories lengthened, and inventory drawdowns led to sustained price increases. The ethanol market in Sichuan remained stable. Sichuan Hongzhan's unit operated normally, local supply quotes were steady, and some brand clients consumed local supply, giving Henan-sourced deliveries a price advantage. Prices in South China remained stable, with lower-priced offers existing in the market. Cassava ethanol supply in South China was stable; COFCO Guangxi's unit was shut down, while Xintian De, Jinyuan (mostly for self-consumption), Haiying, and Guangxi Wanwei units were producing. Molasses ethanol prices weakened, with transactions driven by downstream rigid demand.

3. Next Week Market Forecast

Ethanol prices are expected to remain primarily stable in the next period. Pre-holiday stocking has begun, but despite rising freight costs, factories are offering concessions on logistics pricing to keep ex-factory prices flat, resulting in increased delivered prices to consumption areas.

For more weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Weekly Report.