Market Review

During the current period (April 3 - April 8, 2026, same below), the absolute price of PX declined. Geopolitical tensions eased within the week, leading to a decrease in crude oil futures and weaker cost support, resulting in lower PX prices. The risk of tight supply slightly diminished, and with a significant drop in the naphtha market, PX processing margins saw some appropriate upward correction.

Key Points to Watch:

① PX output this week was 703,000 tons, down 1.86% week-on-week.
② The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 84.99%, down 1.61% week-on-week.
③ The average weekly PX capacity utilization rate in Asia was 74.11%, down 1.87% week-on-week.

I. Weaker Cost Support Leads to PX Price Decline

During this period, the absolute price of PX fell. With easing geopolitical relations and a drop in crude oil futures during the week, cost support weakened, leading to lower PX prices. The risk of supply tightness slightly decreased, and a significant decline in the naphtha market allowed for some appropriate upward correction in PX processing margins within the week. International oil prices fell during the week, with WTI at $94.41/barrel, down 15.36%, and Brent at $94.75/barrel, down 13.10%. On Wednesday, April 8th, the average Asian PX market price was $1242.42/ton CFR China and $1220.42/ton FOB Korea, down $5.92/ton from the previous week, representing decreases of 0.47% and 0.48% respectively. Sinopec's March PX settlement price was 9750 yuan/ton (a discount of 20 yuan/ton for cash payment).

During the period, a unit at Hengli Petrochemical underwent maintenance, and Yisheng New Materials reduced operating rates over the previous weekend due to raw material supply issues, leading to a contraction in domestic supply. Terminal performance fell short of expectations, with polyester sector loads declining slowly, resulting in continued overall demand contraction. Overall, the inventory build-up indicated by the balance sheet narrowed. At the beginning of the week, tensions in the Middle East kept oil prices strong, supporting firm spot price levels. However, as US-Iran negotiations progressed, oil prices retreated rapidly, dragging down spot prices under cost pressure.

At the close, the weekly average spot price of PTA in East China was 6705 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week-on-week.

II. Reduced Operating Rates at Individual Enterprises Lead to Lower Output

During the week, the 1-million-ton PX unit at Lidong Petrochemical underwent maintenance, with a restart expected in early May. Due to tight raw material supply, Guangdong Petrochemical reduced its PX operating rate to 70%. Simultaneously, Fujian United and Sinochem Quanzhou maintained low operating rates. The maintenance schedule for Hainan Refining's 1.6-million-ton PX unit was brought forward to May, lasting three months. Overseas, SK UAC's 1-million-ton PX unit in South Korea shut down yesterday, with a planned downtime of 50 days. PX production at the company's other two plants was also correspondingly reduced. This week's PX output was 716,300 tons, down 0.94% week-on-week. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 86.6%, down 0.82% week-on-week. The Asian weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, down 1.16% week-on-week.

During this period, domestic PTA output was 1.5047 million tons, down 50,700 tons from the previous week but up 148,500 tons year-on-year. Output declined this period due to a unit maintenance at Hengli Petrochemical over the weekend and the previous weekend's rate reduction at Yisheng New Materials.

III. Supply Narrowing Leads to Inventory Drawdown

PX Output Forecast for Next Week: No PX unit changes are expected next week. Projected weekly PX output is 703,000 tons. Given recent risks in crude oil and naphtha supply, close attention should be paid to PX plant operating rates.

Table 1: China PX Supply-Demand Balance Sheet
(Unit: 10,000 tons)

| Data Type | Item | Current Period | Previous Period | Change | Next Period Trend |
|--------------------|-------------------|----------------|-----------------|-----------|-------------------|
| Supply | Domestic PX Output| 70.3 | 72.31 | -2.01 | 70.3 |
| | PX Imports | 23.33 | 18.67 | +4.66 | 23.33 |
| | Total Supply | 93.63 | 95.33 | -1.70 | 93.63 |
| Demand | Domestic Consumption | 99.55 | 101.35 | -1.80 | 95.79 |
| | Exports | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
| | Total Demand | 99.55 | 102.91 | -3.36 | 95.79 |
| Supply-Demand Gap | Weekly Theoretical Balance | -5.92 | -7.58 | +1.66 | -2.16 |

Data Source: chempricehub

PTA Output Forecast for Next Week: Little change is expected in domestic units next period, with supply slightly down due to the rate reduction at Yisheng New Materials. Projected weekly output is around 1.5121 million tons.

IV. Cost Support and Price Trends

This week's survey covered 20 sample enterprises, including 15 PX producers, 3 downstream users, and 2 traders.

• Bullish expectations account for about 10%: Concerns over raw material supply risks and the market entering the maintenance season provide supportive factors from the supply side.
• Stable expectations account for about 15%: The primary view is a lack of clear directional guidance in the market.
• Bearish expectations account for about 75%: Cost support is perceived as weak.

Market Outlook: PX prices are expected to decline next week, primarily due to weak cost support. However, increased PX maintenance is likely to push processing margins higher. PX prices are forecasted to trade around $1100/ton CFR China.

• Cost Side: International oil prices are expected to have room to fall next week, with WTI potentially trading in the $88-105/barrel range and Brent in the $90-105/barrel range.
• Supply Side: No PX unit changes are expected next week. Projected weekly PX output is 703,000 tons. Given recent risks in crude oil and naphtha supply, close attention should be paid to PX plant operating rates.
• Demand Side: Domestic PTA output was 1.5047 million tons, down 50,700 tons from the previous week but up 148,500 tons year-on-year. Output declined this period due to a unit maintenance at Hengli Petrochemical over the weekend and the previous weekend's rate reduction at Yisheng New Materials.