Why are Bulk Commodities prices rising even as global chemical capacity looks oversupplied?

Why are Bulk Commodities prices rising even as global chemical capacity looks oversupplied?
Total capacity and effective supply are not the same thing in Bulk Commodities. Nameplate capacity is abundant, but much of it is high-cost, aging or geographically stranded. European crackers depend on expensive naphtha, Japanese and Korean units are retiring, and Middle East volumes face shipping and geopolitical disruption. That leaves genuinely competitive supply tight even when headline capacity looks long. The result is a supply-push rally: feedstock costs rise, downstream margins compress, and producers cut runs. Whether the move lasts depends less on crude and more on how long downstream buyers can absorb higher input costs.