Why is acrylonitrile price spread widening despite falling crude oil?

Why is acrylonitrile price spread widening despite falling crude oil?
Acrylonitrile is currently benefiting from a rare divergence between feedstock costs and product prices. While crude oil has retreated, the AN price spread expanded by RMB 1,600/mt in a single week, driven by active supply-side contraction—unplanned plant shutdowns and tight spot availability have kept prices firm. This pattern aligns with a broader chemical upcycle thesis: when oil stabilizes at moderate levels, downstream demand expands and product prices track upward, widening margins for midstream producers. Key supply cuts include Asahi Kasei's planned closure of its 200,000 mt/yr AN line at Mizushima by fiscal 2030, shifting commercial supply to its Korean affiliate. With global capacity rationalization accelerating, particularly in Europe and Japan, Chinese producers like Sierbang (780,000 mt/yr) and Eastern Shenghong (1.04 million mt/yr) are positioned to capture improved margins.