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China's self-sufficiency in TMP is improving, but technology licensing from Perstorp and other foreign firms still plays a role. Watch for export opportunities as Chinese producers gain cost advantages—particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, where downstream coating industries are expanding rapidly.
This switch highlights a broader industry trend: TMP's structural overcapacity and weak downstream demand in coatings and resins have eroded profitability. Wanhua's move will remove 50,000 tons of TMP supply, which could actually support TMP prices in the medium term—a silver lining for remaining producers.
The price surge reflects a structural supply-demand gap rather than speculation. With only a handful of producers and no major capacity additions announced, the market could remain tight through 2026. Buyers should secure term contracts early to hedge against further upside.