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If duties are maintained, Chinese buyers will likely continue relying on domestic supply plus imports from non-dutied origins. This supports domestic price premiums but also raises feedstock costs for downstream rubber antioxidant producers, who may face margin compression if tire demand softens.
Beyond traditional uses, keep an eye on emerging high-value applications like nuclear fuel reprocessing and plant-based pharmaceutical extraction. These niche segments may not move volumes today but could offer premium pricing opportunities for domestic producers looking to diversify beyond the rubber antioxidant chain.
Watch Wanhua Chemical's new 30,000-tonne MIBK project in Shandong. Once operational, it could ease the domestic supply gap and pressure import volumes. The project also signals growing interest from major producers in a market where margins have been attractive.