EO prices remain stable

1. Today's Summary

1. On September 29: Mediators such as Qatar continued to promote US-Iran peace talks, and Saudi crude oil supply showed signs of recovery, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $89.38/bbl, down $3.22/bbl (-3.48% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $102.59/bbl, down $2.69/bbl (-2.56% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (November 2026 contract) fell by 17.2 yuan to 716.9 yuan/bbl, and the night session dropped by 11.7 yuan to 705.2 yuan/bbl.

2. On September 29: The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene spot price was $1,160/ton, unchanged from the previous business day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices remained stable for now. On the supply side, glycol prices declined, reducing production margins for glycol and weakening the incentive to switch production from EO to glycol; thus, EO supply may see an increase. Transactions in key downstream industries were concentrated on rigid demand procurement. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices remained stable, with market transactions driven primarily by rigid demand. Overall, fundamental fluctuations were limited, keeping EO prices stable. Continuous monitoring of upstream and downstream dynamics is required.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese ethylene oxide industry stood at 50.74%. As of the previous business day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was 1,706.55 CNY/ton. The theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene today was 1,406.25 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain high and stable in the short term. On the supply side, continuous declines in glycol prices and sluggish pre-holiday demand have reduced the motivation for co-production units to switch to glycol. Consequently, EO supply has not contracted significantly, resulting in a tight but stable market supply. On the demand side, key downstream industries rely mainly on contract goods, with spot purchases following rigid demand. On the cost side, ethylene prices are trending weakly but stably. Mid-holiday inventory stocking by downstream derivatives is complete, leading to insufficient buying interest and limited new transaction volumes. In summary, supported by the supply side and underpinned by costs, EO prices are likely to remain stable. Continuous attention to upstream and downstream developments is advised.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Currently, domestic producers have limited spot ethylene availability, focusing mostly on pre-sales. Profitability in styrene-based derivative markets is weak, making it difficult to boost external sourcing demand. For the next business day, ethylene prices are expected to be steady but slightly weak. Mainstream negotiation prices in East China are projected to hold at 9,300 CNY/ton, while Shandong mainstream prices are estimated at 8,900–8,950 CNY/ton. Regarding USD-denominated prices, although long-distance crude oil pipeline repairs are progressing faster than expected, the shipping market maintains a tight balance between supply and demand. The price range may fluctuate around $1,140–$1,180/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may trend slightly weaker with narrow adjustments. The primary raw material, ethylene oxide, is expected to remain stable. Market supply may fluctuate within a narrow range due to downstream rigid consumption. Buying sentiment in the ethylene market is poor, and there is a possibility that producers may offer slight discounts after the holiday, potentially causing ethylene prices to loosen marginally. Cost-side support is moderate. Within the monomer market, low-price shipments dominate. Downstream buyers are cautious, replenishing based on rigid needs, with sporadic new orders and volume-dependent negotiations. In conclusion, the main EPEG price in East China is forecasted to be between 10,400 and 10,600 CNY/ton.

③ Glycol (Related Product): With geopolitical tensions easing and crude oil prices falling, glycol faces dual pressure from costs and supply. Post-holiday market adjustments are expected, with the mainstream operating range predicted to be between 6,200 and 6,600 CNY/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)