Poor demand follow-up; prices of polycarboxylate superplasticizer (PCE) monomers continue to decline (September 28–30, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Cost Side: Ethylene oxide (EO) feedstock prices remained stable during the week, providing solid cost support.
2. Supply Side: Operating loads at some monomer plants increased slightly, leading to a marginal rise in supply availability.
3. Demand Side: Downstream buyers showed limited enthusiasm for pre-holiday procurement, with most adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding market trends.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Table 1: Weekly Closing Price Comparison of Chinese Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Market

Unit: RMB/ton

Source: Chempricehub Information

During this period (September 28–30, 2026, hereinafter referred to as "this period"), polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices continued their downward trend, and market sentiment was characterized by strong caution. As of September 30, the mainstream price for EPEG monomers in the East China market stood at 10,700 RMB/ton, a decrease of 750 RMB/ton from the previous week. The weekly average price for EPEG in the key East China market was 10,916.67 RMB/ton, down 950 RMB/ton week-over-week. Specifically:

1. East China Market: Most plants maintained normal production, while individual facilities saw slight increases in operating loads. Crude oil prices fluctuated, and ethylene glycol (EG) prices continued to fall, negatively impacting market sentiment. Spot resources for ethylene oxide (EO) did not show significant volume increases, keeping prices firm at high levels. Although cost-side support remained, downstream caution and resistance to high prices intensified, reducing willingness to procure at elevated levels. Consequently, monomer prices continued to slide. Amidst the bearish atmosphere, downstream restocking enthusiasm was poor, with sporadic new orders.

2. Northeast China Market: Plant operations were generally stable, increasing spot market availability. Low-priced goods flowed into the market, prompting holders to actively sell off inventory. However, as monomer prices continued to decline without stopping, downstream buyers further controlled their procurement pace and volumes, leading to a slowdown in overall market trading activity.

3. South China Market: Supply availability was relatively ample. Monomer producers operated normally but mostly offered discounts to facilitate sales. Downstream buyers had low enthusiasm for purchasing at high prices, primarily engaging in inquiries rather than transactions. Actual orders were limited to small-volume rigid demand releases.

4. Market Influencing Factors (Data)

1. Supply Data: During this period, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry was 27.40%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points week-over-week. Weekly output was 30,600 tons, up 2.68% week-over-week.
2. Inventory Data: As of Thursday, the sellable inventory ratio at domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer factories was -28.73%, an increase of 4.50 percentage points from the previous week. Sellable inventory volume was -54,900 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons compared to the previous period.
3. Cost Data: During this period, the weekly average cost for HPEG in East China was 10,729 RMB/ton, flat week-over-week. The weekly average cost for TPEG was 10,549 RMB/ton, also flat week-over-week.
4. Profit Data: During this period, the weekly average profit for HPEG in East China was 287.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 916.67 RMB/ton week-over-week. The weekly average profit for TPEG was 467.67 RMB/ton, down 916.67 RMB/ton week-over-week.

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

1. Supply Forecast: Operating loads at monomer producer plants may fluctuate within a narrow range, with overall utilization rates likely remaining at relatively low levels.
2. Demand Forecast: Post-holiday downstream procurement may remain cautious, focusing on restocking at lower prices.
3. Cost Forecast: EO price trends are expected to remain stable in the short term, potentially providing support for monomer costs.

Summary: After the holiday, high prices for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers may still soften, with market fluctuations primarily driven by changes in supply-demand dynamics.

1. Supply Side: Some plants anticipate reduced operating loads, while others plan maintenance shutdowns; remaining facilities may see minor load adjustments. Overall utilization rates are expected to dip slightly. As monomer producers gradually deliver accumulated backlog orders, spot market availability may increase, bringing supply pressure to the forefront and weighing on the market.
2. Demand Side: October remains a traditional peak consumption season. However, if monomer prices continue to trade weakly, downstream buyers may adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. Insufficient terminal orders will hinder bulk buying enthusiasm, and lack of transaction volume may lead to emerging supply-demand contradictions. While downstream terminal enterprises maintain rigid demand and some stockpiling expectations persist in October, if monomer prices fail to stabilize, procurement will remain cautious, dominated by small-order releases with rare instances of bulk restocking.
3. Cost Side: US-Iran negotiations are ongoing, potentially leading to increased EG supply and weaker price oscillations. In the EO market, some plants undergoing maintenance are expected to restart, possibly resulting in a marginal increase in spot supply. Downstream industries across sectors will maintain rigid consumption levels. With increased available EO sources and general demand, prices may loosen slightly within a narrow range. In the short term, fundamental support is expected for the EO market, leading to stable prices amid observation.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Weekly Report.

(Note: The following section appears to be data from the previous reporting period, September 18–24, 2026, included in the source text.)

During this period (September 18–24, 2026), polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices declined from high levels, and market trading activity slowed. As of September 24, the mainstream price for EPEG monomers in the East China market was 11,450 RMB/ton, down 200 RMB/ton from the previous week. The weekly average price for EPEG in the key East China market was 11,866.67 RMB/ton, down 691.67 RMB/ton week-over-week. Specifically:

1. East China Market: Most plants maintained normal production, with minor adjustments to operating loads at individual facilities. Signs of easing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East led to a drop in crude oil prices, causing EG prices to fall from highs. Bearish sentiment among market participants increased. Spot supply of EO remained tight, keeping prices firm. Despite cost-side support, factors such as downstream resistance to high prices and insufficient future orders hindered transactions for high-priced goods. Monomer prices fell, with new orders limited to sporadic rigid demand and single lots, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere.

2. Northeast China Market: Plant operations were generally stable, with negative inventory levels persisting. Supply pressure remained low, but increased availability of low-priced goods boosted sellers' willingness to unload inventory. Affected by the "buy on rise, avoid on fall" mentality, downstream buyers entered the market cautiously, with most waiting on the sidelines.

3. South China Market: Spot resources were limited. Some companies continued to sell existing stock at high prices, though transactions often involved concessions. Downstream buyers had low willingness to purchase at high prices, strictly adhering to rigid demand requirements. Risk aversion was prominent, reflecting a weak supply-demand structure in the market.

4. Market Influencing Factors (Data)

1. Supply Data: During this period, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry was 26.72%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points week-over-week. Weekly output was 29,800 tons, down 1.00% week-over-week.
2. Inventory Data: As of Thursday, the sellable inventory ratio at domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer factories was -33.23%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week. Sellable inventory volume was -63,500 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons compared to the previous period.
3. Cost Data: During this period, the weekly average cost for HPEG in East China was 10,729 RMB/ton, an increase of 485 RMB/ton week-over-week. The weekly average cost for TPEG was 10,549 RMB/ton, up 500 RMB/ton week-over-week.
4. Profit Data: During this period, the weekly average profit for HPEG in East China was 1,204.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 178.33 RMB/ton week-over-week. The weekly average profit for TPEG was 1,384.33 RMB/ton, up 163.33 RMB/ton week-over-week.

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

1. Supply Forecast: Operating loads at monomer producer plants may fluctuate within a narrow range, with overall utilization rates expected to remain relatively stable.
2. Demand Forecast: With holidays approaching, downstream procurement enthusiasm is unlikely to improve significantly, with releases limited to rigid demand.
3. Cost Forecast: EO price trends are expected to remain stable in the short term, potentially supporting monomer costs.

Summary: Next week, high prices for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers may still soften, with market fluctuations primarily driven by changes in supply-demand dynamics.

1. Supply Side: Some plants may anticipate increased output, while others will make minor adjustments to operating loads. Overall utilization rates are expected to change little. Currently, monomer producers are focused on delivering previously accumulated orders, resulting in no immediate supply pressure. However, if the downtrend continues, new order inflows will slow, and rising supply combined with weak demand will further drag down prices.
2. Demand Side: October remains a traditional peak consumption season. However, if monomer prices continue to trade weakly, downstream buyers may adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. Insufficient terminal orders will hinder bulk buying enthusiasm, and lack of transaction volume may lead to emerging supply-demand contradictions.
3. Cost Side: US-Iran tensions remain unclear, and EG supply gaps persist, suggesting prices may oscillate within a range. Spot supply of EO is not expected to loosen significantly. Downstream industries will maintain rigid consumption levels. With limited available EO sources and general demand, prices may remain stagnant or consolidate. In the short term, fundamental support is expected for the EO market, leading to stable prices.