Maintaining a bullish trend; monitoring raw material prices

1. Daily Summary

① Viers plant restarted and is operating normally; Depu Phase III plant has shut down, while Phase II has restarted.

② On the raw material side, the mainstream quoted price for propylene oxide (PO) from major domestic plants today was 11,150 RMB/ton (ex-works, cash).

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Propylene Glycol (PG) Industry Chain Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Using the Shandong region as a benchmark, today’s PG closing price in Shandong was 9,250 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month increase.

The Shandong market price continued to trend stronger, yet on-site wait-and-see sentiment remained undiminished. Export orders provided some support, with individual factories hoarding stock and suspending quotes. The East China market rose steadily, though downstream buyers were cautious about chasing highs. The South China market remained stale at high levels, with suppliers actively accepting orders and shipping out.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate for PG is around 50%, with output slightly declining. Profitability strengthened compared to last week.

4. Market Sentiment

Table 2: Domestic PG Stakeholder Sentiment Forecast

5. Price Forecast

Looking ahead, on the raw material side, the PO market continues to rise. Operating plants are selling smoothly without pressure, with some offering slight premiums. Although high-end transactions are relatively scarce, the overall upward momentum persists. In the PG market, prices of upstream raw materials propylene and PO continue to climb, prompting operating plants to raise their quotes accordingly. Main markets still have certain rigid demand support from exports, and some factories are hoarding stock and stopping quotes. However, domestic downstream interest remains weak. It is expected that PG market prices will trend stronger. Continuous monitoring of plant details and raw material price trends is advised.

6. Related Product Status

Unsaturated Resin Market: Using the Jiangsu region as a benchmark, today’s unsaturated resin 196# closed at 11,100 RMB/ton, stable compared to yesterday and consistent with morning expectations. Today, the unsaturated resin market saw localized increases. Post-holiday raw material prices mostly rose, providing strong cost support. Domestic ex-works quotes for unsaturated resins generally increased steadily by around 300 RMB/ton. Regarding spot goods, prices in Jiangsu and South China remained mostly stable, while prices in Shandong and Hebei rose slightly. Influenced by international crude oil and higher opening prices in the upstream industry chain, market sentiment was moderately watchful. Some sellers raised their target prices, but downstream procurement follow-up remained sluggish, limiting high-price transactions.

Polyether Market: Spot market quotes continued to rise and consolidate. Expectations for further PO increases persist, leading manufacturers to keep raising quotes. Mid-to-downstream rigid demand purchasing atmosphere was average. Focus should remain on downstream entry sentiment and raw material news.

7. Data Calendar

Table 3: Domestic PG Data Overview (Unit: Tons)