The price trend of MMA in 2026 has exceeded expectations, rising sharply from below 10,000 yuan/ton during the January–February period to surpass 15,000 yuan/ton in March. With prices remaining high in April, the key question is whether downstream products can follow suit in terms of pricing and transaction volume, and how effectively the cost transmission will occur overall.

Observing Price Trends: MMA vs. Downstream Products

Comparing the price trends of MMA and its downstream products from 2022 to 2025, Figure 1 shows that in 2026, the correlation between MMA and its downstream products has strengthened. The correlation with PMMA pellets and ACR is particularly strong during certain periods, though PMMA pellets exhibit a noticeable lag at some turning points. The correlation between MMA and pure acrylic emulsion is weaker compared to other downstream products.

As seen in Table 2, over the past five years, the annual average price trends of MMA, PMMA pellets, and ACR have generally moved in the same direction, with only slight deviations in some years compared to pure acrylic emulsion. From the perspective of price volatility and spreads relative to raw materials (Table 3), the price gap between PMMA pellets and MMA widened during 2024–2025. During this period, continuous expansion in PMMA pellet capacity and evolving supply-demand dynamics meant that prices were no longer influenced solely by raw material costs. The limited change in the spread between ACR and MMA in recent years indicates strong price linkage. In contrast, the spread between MMA and pure acrylic emulsion shows no discernible pattern.

Changes in Correlation Between MMA and Downstream Products Based on Correlation Coefficients

Comparing the correlation coefficients between MMA and its downstream products from 2022 to 2025, Table 3 reveals a strong correlation between MMA and ACR, with coefficients consistently above 0.90. For PMMA pellets, the correlation has been stronger in the past two years compared to 2023–2024. The weakening correlation in 2023–2024 was mainly due to differing supply-demand dynamics and price adjustment rhythms between the two products at different stages. In 2026, driven by geopolitical factors, cost pressures, and supply constraints, products across the industry chain saw price increases in March, leading to higher correlation coefficients. However, after the price hikes, high-end sales performance varied among products, with some end-users showing resistance to high prices. Thus, a high correlation coefficient derived from price data does not fully reflect actual transaction volumes and the effectiveness of cost transmission post-price fluctuations.

Summary and Outlook on the Correlation Between MMA and Downstream Products

The correlation between MMA and its downstream products tends to be stronger during periods when market demand exceeds supply, as downstream prices are more significantly affected by cost changes. Since MMA and its downstream products shifted to a state of oversupply, and given that each product is at a different stage of supply-demand dynamics, downstream products such as PMMA pellets have not moved entirely in sync with the monomer. This indicates that cost transmission varies across products depending on their individual supply-demand conditions. Moreover, even when correlation coefficients are high during certain periods, this does not necessarily mean that price movements in downstream products are solely driven by raw material price changes. Additionally, when downstream products are significantly affected by raw material price fluctuations, the magnitude of their price adjustments may not fully align, and post-increase or post-decrease sales performance varies by product, reflecting differences in transmission rhythms. In the long term, with continued capacity expansion expected for MMA and PMMA pellets, and limited capacity growth for other downstream products, coupled with varying supply conditions and end-market acceptance, the price spreads between downstream products and MMA are unlikely to follow an absolute predictable pattern.